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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China Increased in January

 

BEIJING, Feb. 23, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China increased 1.6 percent in January to 225.7 (2004 = 100), following a 0.8 percent increase in December and a 0.5 percent increase in November. Five of the six components contributed positively to the index in January.

"The January uptick in the LEI for China raised the six month growth rate slightly, but the trend remains slower than the first half of 2011 and equal numbers of its components have been rising and falling over the past several months, indicating a broad-based slowing," says Andrew Polk, Resident China Economist at The Conference Board in Beijing. "The preliminary data for construction activity as well as consumer expectations made by far the largest contributions to the LEI in January, while loans and the purchasing manager indexes for supplier delivery and new exports orders weakened," he adds. "The LEI for China therefore still points to continued but slower growth in 2012. However, headline policy is likely to remain relatively tight as authorities will be wary of re-stoking inflation and asset prices."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for China, which measures current economic activity, increased 0.8 percent in January to 217.6 (2004 = 100) according to preliminary estimates*, following a 0.9 percent increase in December and a 1.2 percent increase in November. All five components contributed positively to the index in January. The Conference Board LEI for China aggregates six economic indicators that measure economic activity in China. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

*According to the National Bureau of Statistics of China, data for industrial production, manufacturing employment, and total floor space started components in January will not be released, due to the Lunar New Year Holiday.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China 

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China was launched in May 2010. Plotted back to 1986, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of China.
The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China include:

Total Loans Issued by Financial Institutions (source: People's Bank of China)
5000 Industry Enterprises Diffusion Index: Raw Materials Supply Index (source: People's Bank of China)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: PMI Supplier Deliveries (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Consumer Expectations Index (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Total Floor Space Started (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: Export Orders (source: National Bureau of Statistics)

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=11

To view The Conference Board calendar of 2012 indicator releases:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. For additional information about The Conference Board and how it can meet your needs, visit our website at www.conference-board.org.

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Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes

 

 

2011

 

 

 

 

2012

 

 

6-month

 

Nov

 

Dec

 

Jan

 

Jul to Jan


Leading Economic index (LEI)

220.4

 

222.1

p

225.7

p

 

    Percent Change

0.5

 

0.8

p

1.6

p

5.3

    Diffusion

58.3

 

83.3

 

91.7

 

50.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Coincident Economic Index (CEI)

213.9

r

215.9

r

217.6

p

 

    Percent Change

1.2

r

0.9

r

0.8

p

4.0

    Diffusion

100.0

 

80.0

 

100.0

 

100.0

 

n.a. Not available    p Preliminary    r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2004
Source: The Conference Board       All Rights Reserved

SOURCE The Conference Board

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