Carbonated Soft Drinks
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Introduction
China's carbonated soft drink market is seeing low double digit growth, which is significantly faster than other global markets (US/UK). However, on a per capita basis, the consumption of carbonated soft drinks in China is still low at an estimated 10.34 litres per person in 2011 compared to an estimated 167.5 litres per person in the US in 2010, indicating the the potential for growth in the marketplace. The dominance by The Coca-Cola Company and PepsiCo of the carbonated soft drinks market in China has meant that smaller companies are struggling to establish themselves in the market.
With obesity on the rise in China, consumers are increasingly trying to adopt a healthier lifestyle such as minimising the intake of artificial ingredients and exercising more. Companies have tapped the health trend with diet carbonated soft drinks, but increasingly, the trend has shifted towards natural products globally and this has opened new opportunities for companies to meet the demand for all-natural products.
Besides flavour innovation and natural carbonated soft drinks, the potential of single-serve package has not been fully exploited. Due to their small size, mini packs, if marketed creatively, can be a useful tool to drive sales.
The on-trade is another area that has not seen its potential fully utilised. The current challenge is to make carbonated soft drinks relevant to the eating out practices of Chinese consumers.
Tan Heng Hong – Research Manager
In this report we answer the key questions:
-How smaller players can compete in a market dominated by The Coca-Cola Company and PepsiCo?
-Are there opportunities for natural carbonated soft drinks in China?
-How can mini packs be successfully used to increase sales?
-What other opportunities in the on-trade channel can be tapped to increase the potential for carbonated soft drinks in this channel?
Definition:
This market covers packaged cola, lemon/lemon & lime, orange and other flavoured carbonated soft drinks. Other flavoured carbonated soft drinks include carbonated mixers such as sodas, tonic, salted soda and carbonated soft drinks with flavours such as apple and sarsi but exclude carbonated fruit juices, sparkling water, iced tea, energy and sports drinks. Market size is based on sales through all retail channels (off-trade) and non-retail sales (hotel, food and restaurant or HoReCa, also known as the on-trade).
Report structure
The report is split into five sections and an Appendix. The Appendix has the full market size, segmentation, share data, all consumer data tables (including demographics), brand and company product data, all Global New Product Database (GNPD) used in the report, macro-economic and country data. The five sections tackle the major issues that are challenging and impacting the market, and assess how the market will evolve over the next five years.
Table of Contents
Introduction 1
Definition: 1
Report structure 1
Executive Summary 3
Appeal of new flavours creates opportunities for smaller companies 3
Potential for mini packs to meet changing consumer needs 3
Concern over artificial ingredients/sweeteners raises prospect for natural alternatives 3
Dominance of international brands stifles market 3
Food pairing and beverage mixing offer opportunities in on-trade 4
Market Background 5
Coca-Cola Company and PepsiCo dominate the market 5
Figure 1: Manufacturer retail volume share, 2006-11 5
Figure 2: Brand preference, by brand and tier city, December 2011 5
CSD market growth outstrips most other key global markets 5
Figure 3: China's total carbonated soft drinks sales (on-trade & off-trade), by volume, 2006-11 6
Figure 4: Carbonated soft drinks volume sales and CAGR growth rate 6
Low per capita consumption presents opportunities 7
Figure 5: Per capita consumption of carbonated soft drinks, by country, 2010 7
Inflation is driving up costs 8
Figure 6: China's total carbonated soft drinks sales (on-trade & off-trade), by value, 2006-11 8
Figure 7: Swire Beverages (Revenue composition – own production in China), 2006 and 2010 8
Competitive environment is challenging 8
Figure 8: Usage of soft drinks, December 2011 9
Consumer segmentation 9
Figure 9: Carbonated beverages clusters, by age groups, December 2011 10
Appeal of New Flavours Creates Opportunities for Smaller Companies 11
Issues at a glance 11
Consumers are keen to try new products 11
Figure 11: Repertoire of flavours bought, December 2011 11
Cola dominates the carbonated soft drinks category 12
Figure 12: Carbonated soft drinks retail sales volume, by flavour, 2006-11 12
Lemon/lemon-lime fastest growing flavour 12
Innovation sees growth in flavour variety 13
Figure 13: Percentage of New Product launches by date published and flavours (including blend), 2006-11 13
Guarana flavour profits from energy drink association 14
Figure 14: Flavours bought, by gender and age, December 2011 15
Figure 15: Top 5 categories where "Guarana Extract" is used in new product launches worldwide, 2011 15
Figure 16: Top 5 categories where "Guarana Extract" is used in new product launches worldwide, 2011 16
Traditional Chinese flavours can keep mature consumers engaged 17
Figure 17: Flavours bought, by gender and age, December 2011 17
Figure 18: Attitudes towards carbonated soft drinks, by age, December 2011 17
Figure 19: Flavours bought, December 2011 19
Sarsi and Salted soda can expand in regional markets 19
Figure 20: Flavours bought, December 2011 20
Figure 21: Flavour bought, December 2011 21
Figure 22: Flavour bought, by gender and age, December 2011 22
Figure 23: Attitude towards food and drink, by age and gender, December 2011 23
What does it mean? 23
Potential for Mini Packs to Meet Changing Consumer Needs 24
Issues at a glance 24
Single-serve can accelerate growth of 'on-the-go' market 24
Figure 24: New carbonated soft drinks launches, by packaging size, 2006-11 24
Figure 25: percentage of Sinopec & PetroChina petrol stations with non-fuel business, 2007-10 25
Opportunities for single-serve to meet workplace snacking needs 26
Figure 26: Time of day CSDs are typically drunk, by demographics, December 2011 26
Figure 27: Time of day snacks are typically eaten, December 2011 26
Figure 28: Price comparison, January 2012 27
Turning single-serve into an ideal companion for lunch meals 27
Figure 29: Location CSDs were bought in the last 3 months, December 2011 27
Health can benefit smaller pack sizes 28
Repositioning can appeal to health-concerned parents 28
Figure 30: Person CSDs are bought for, by gender, December 2011 28
What does it mean? 29
Concern Over Artificial Ingredients/Sweeteners Raises Prospect for Natural Alternatives 30
Issues at a glance 30
Obesity and overweight is a growing issue 30
Figure 31: Attitudes toward food and drink, December 2011 31
Artificial sweeteners have a bad reputation 31
Figure 32: New carbonated soft drinks with no additives/preservatives claims, 2006-11 32
Potential for stevia to address the lack of new launches in natural category 32
Figure 33: Stevia launches in CSD category, 2006-11 33
Figure 34: Stevia-sweetened CSD launches, by country, 2008-11 33
Figure 35: Top 5 countries where "Stevia" is used in new product launches across all categories, 2011 33
Figure 36: Top 5 categories where "Stevia" is used in new product launches worldwide, 2011 33
Figure 37: Use of stevia in soft drinks in China. 2006-11 34
Diet segment could be revived by zero-calorie, natural sweeteners 34
Figure 38: Attitude towards carbonated soft drinks, December 2011 35
Figure 39: Brands of carbonated soft drinks bought in the last 3 months, December 2011 35
Figure 40: New carbonated soft drinks with claims of low/no/reduced calorie/sugar, 2006-11 36
Natural cane sugar and agave offer viable alternatives to high-fructose corn syrup 37
Figure 41: New agave-sweetened CSD global launches with claims as a % of total new global CSD launches with claims, 2007-11 38
What does it mean? 39
Dominance of International Brands Stifles Market 40
Issues at a glance 40
Pepsi tie up changes market dynamics 40
Figure 42: Manufacturer retail volume share, 2006-11 40
Smaller brands struggling to make an impact in retail 41
Figure 43: Local Brands bought, December 2011 42
Consumer segmentation highlights local differentiation 43
Figure 44: Attitudes towards carbonated soft drinks, by cluster groups, December 2011 43
Brazil provides guide for 'co-operative' model 44
Local brands compete on heritage and provenance 45
Figure 45: Attitudes towards carbonated soft drinks, by demographics, December 2011 47
Figure 46: Attitudes towards carbonated soft drinks, by cluster groups, December 2011 49
Coca-Cola Co, PepsiCo dominate new launches 49
Figure 47: Carbonated soft drinks new launches, by launch type, 2006-11 49
Figure 48: Cumulative new launches, 2006-11, by companies 50
Figure 49: New launches, by company, 2006-11 50
Figure 50: Brand preference, by age group, December 2011 52
Figure 51: Attitudes towards carbonated soft drinks, by cluster groups, December 2011 55
Figure 52: Attitude on trust towards Chinese carbonated soft drink brand, by cluster groups, December 2011 55
What does it mean? 58
Food Pairing and Beverage Mixing Offer Opportunities in On-Trade 59
Issues at a glance 59
On-trade failing to capitalise on rise of eating out 59
Figure 53: Location CSDs are drunk, December 2011 59
Figure 54: Carbonated soft drinks retail and horeca volume and value split, 2006-11 59
Making carbonated soft drinks ideal companion to out-of-home dining 60
Figure 55: Time of day CSDs are typically drunk, by demographics, December 2011 60
Potential for turning carbonated soft drinks into mixers 61
Figure 56: Usage of carbonated soft drinks, by demographics, December 2011 61
What does it mean? 62
Future 63
Appendix 64
Market size, segment and share data 64
Figure 57: Carbonated soft drinks brands and their ultimate owners 64
Figure 58: total carbonated soft drinks sales (on-trade & off-trade), by volume, 2006-11 64
Figure 59: total carbonated soft drinks sales (on-trade & off-trade), by value, 2006-11 64
Figure 59: Carbonated soft drinks retail and horeca volume and value split, 2006-11 65
Figure 61: Total volume of carbonated soft drinks market (on-trade/off-trade), by flavour, 2006-2011 65
Figure 62: Total value of carbonated soft drinks market (on-trade/off-trade), by flavour, 2006-2011 65
Figure 60: Carbonated soft drinks retail sales volume, by flavour, 2006-11 66
Figure 614: Carbonated soft drinks retail sales value, by flavour, 2006-11 66
Figure 65: Manufacturer retail volume share, 2006-11 67
Figure 66: Manufacturer retail value share, 2006-11 67
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